Though the focus of our work is on global and regional climate analysis, it is also possible to use our data to estimate national temperature trends. Global land surface temperature: The globally averaged land surface temperature for 2019 was 2.56°F (1.42°C) above the 20th century average. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2019/13, Global Temperature and Precipitation Maps, Assessing the Global Climate in November 2019, Assessing the Global Climate in September 2017, Assessing the Global Climate in March 2019. Due to uncertainties in the analysis and the limits of our spatial resolution some national average estimates may differ slightly from the values reported by national weather agencies. Global land surface temperature: For December, the globally averaged land surface temperature was 3.22°F (1.79°C) above the 20th century average — the second warmest December in the 1880–2019 record, behind December 2015 (+3.58°F / +1.99°C). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(8), S11–S12. Do you have feedback to offer on this or another article?Let us know what you think. This process provides a consistent, reliable method for monitoring changes in Earth's surface temperature over time. This was the 19th smallest December value in the 54-year record. We estimate that 9.9% of the Earth’s surface set a new local record for the warmest annual average. Arctic sea ice extent: The average Arctic sea ice extent for December was 4.61 million square miles, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center based on data from NOAA and NASA. Arctic sea ice extent: Recent trends in the decline of Arctic sea ice extent continued in 2019. The year 1998 is the only 20th century year among the 10 warmest years on record. admin@berkeleyearth.org In 2019, 88% of the Earth’s surface was significantly warmer than the average temperature during 1951-1980, 10% was of a similar temperature, and only 1.5% was significantly colder. The following figure shows land and ocean temperature changes relative to the average from 1850 to 1900. The following is our report on global mean temperature during 2019. The global mean temperature in 2019 was estimated to be 1.28 °C (2.31 °F) above the average temperature of the late 19th century, from 1850-1900, a period often used as a pre-industrial baseline for global temperature targets. The five warmest years have occurred since 2015; nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. In addition, we estimate a roughly 20% chance that 2020 could set a new record for warmest year. This means that some parts of Earth are quite cold while other parts are downright hot. In the analysis that Berkeley Earth conducts, the uncertainty on the mean temperature is approximately 0.05 °C (0.08 °F) for recent years. The slight disagreement in the ranking reflects both the uncertainty in these estimations and the differences in how various research programs look at the Earth. This value was 344,000 square miles (6.9 percent) smaller than the 1981–2010 average and tied with 2006 as the fifth smallest December sea ice extent since records began in 1979. According to the 2019 Global Climate Report from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2019 began with a weak-to-moderate El Niño event underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880 and over twice that rate (+0.18°C / +0.32°F) since 1981. After combining the ocean data with our land data, we arrive at a global picture of climate change since 1850. The global mean temperature in 2019 was colder than 2016, but warmer than every other year that has been directly measured. Every month in 2019 was at least 1.1 °C (2.1 °F) warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average. The year 2019 counted among the top three warmest years on record. Record high sea surface temperatures were observed across parts of all oceans, specifically, parts of the North and South Atlantic Ocean, the western Indian Ocean, and northern, western and southwestern Pacific Ocean. Temperatures vary from night to day and between seasonal extremes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In addition, it was also the warmest year thus far observed in Antarctica. Annual global temperature anomalies for land and ocean combined, expressed as departures from the 1901-2000 average. In a separate analysis of global temperature data, released today, WMO, NASA and Copernicus scientists determined 2019 to also be the second warmest year on record. The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for September 2017 was the fourth highest for the month. We have updated our Privacy Policy to reflect the use of personalized advertising cookies placed on our website. Since 1980, the overall trend is +0.19 °C/decade (+0.34 °F/decade) and has changed little during this period. As in other recent years, 2019 also demonstrated very strong warming over the Arctic that significantly exceeds the Earth’s mean rate of warming. Places that warmed by up to 1° Fahrenheit over the past 30 years are red, places that have cooled by up to 1° F are blue, and places where we don't have enough observations to calculate a trend are light gray. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Based on historical variability and current conditions, it is possible to roughly estimate what global mean temperature should be expected in 2020. Our current estimate is that 2020 is likely to be similar to 2019 but with a potential to be somewhat warmer or cooler. Of note, Oceania had its warmest year on record at 2.52°F (1.40°C) above average. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A graph and an animated time series showing the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures. December’s combined global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average for 2019 was also second highest in the 140-year record. The following map shows the degree to which local temperatures in 2019 have increased relative to the average temperature in 1951-1980. The global land and ocean temperature departure from average for March 2019 was second highest on record for the month of March. Both 2015 and 2016 were warmed by an extreme El Niño event that peaked in Nov/Dec of 2015 and was reported by NOAA as essentially tied for the strongest El Niño ever observed. Weather balloon radiosonde measurements of atmospheric temperature at various altitudes begin to show an approximation of global coverage in the 1950s. In our estimation, 2019 was the hottest year since instrumental records began in the following 36 countries: Angola, Australia, Belarus, Belize, Botswana, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Comoros, Djibouti, Gabon, Guatemala, Hungary, Jamaica, Kenya, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Madagascar, Mauritius, Moldova, Myanmar, Namibia, Poland, Republic of the Congo, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Somalia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. (2018). This value tied with 2015 as the second highest among all years in the 140-year record, behind 2016. For regional details and more 2019 climate statistics, see the 2019 Annual Climate Report from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Overall, Oceania’s annual temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.22°F (+0.12°C) per decade since 1910; it has almost doubled to +0.40°F (+0.22°C) since 1981. By 2030, however, the heating imbalance caused by greenhouse gases begins to overcome the oceans' thermal inertia, and projected temperature pathways begin to diverge, with unchecked carbon dioxide emissions likely leading to several additional degrees of warming by the end of the century. This similarity in temperatures regardless of total emissions is a short-term phenomenon: it reflects the tremendous inertia of Earth's vast oceans. This value tied with 2015 as the second highest among all years in the 140-year record, behind 2016. The contents of this report, including all images and the referenced videos, may be reused under the terms of the Creative Commons BY-4.0 copyright license for any purpose and in any forum, consistent with the terms of that license. NASA Earth Observatory (2015, January 21) Why So Many Global Temperature Records? 2019 was the 2nd warmest year in the Arctic. In fact, la Niña was in place across the tropical Pacific from January–April, and it left an imprint on the region's temp… Please note that anomalies and ranks reflect the historical record according to these updated v… Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. The following chart provides a summary of the warming that countries experienced in 2019 relative 1951 to 1980 averages. Updated data files will appear at our data page, and are updated monthly. According to the U.S. When preparing our year-end reports, Berkeley Earth traditionally compares our global mean temperature analysis to the results of five other groups that also report global mean surface temperature. The following chart shows a ten- year moving average of the Earth’s surface temperature, plotted relative to the average temperature from 1850-1900. Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. In addition to long-term warming, individual years are also affected by interannual variations in weather. As shown in the chart, several recent years have had temperatures more than 1 °C (1.8 °F) above the average temperature from 1850-1900, often used as an estimate of the pre-industrial climate. Data: NASA GISS; Graphic: Harry Stevens/Axios. Only 2016 was warmer at 1.42°F (0.79°C). According to the NOAA 2019 Global Climate Summary, the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 (0.18°C / 0.32°F) is more than twice as great. Across inaccessible areas that have few measurements, scientists use surrounding temperatures and other information to estimate the missing values. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change aims to keep global temperature rise to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) and encourages parties to strive for warming of no more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). This is consistent with the process known as Arctic amplification. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913, Carbon Dioxide: Earth's Hottest Topic is Just Warming Up, History of Earth's temperature since 1880. In reconstructing the changes in global mean temperature since 1850, Berkeley Earth has examined 20 million monthly-average temperature observations from 48,000 weather stations. This animation shows monthly temperatures for January–December 2019 compared to each month's 1981-2010 average. However, the differences between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd warmest years in the ocean are small compared to the measurement uncertainty, meaning they are all essentially indistinguishable. Consequently, 2016 remains the warmest year in the period of historical observations. Check out our. No land or ocean areas were record cold for the year, and the only substantial pocket of cooler-than-average land temperatures was in central North America. Each value is then used to calculate a global temperature average. As with the global average, 2019 was the 2nd warmest year on land. To speak of the "average" temperature, then, may seem like nonsense. Uncertainties indicate 95% confidence range. In 2019, 52% of the Earth have annual averages that would rate as “Very High” compared to the historical climate, including large portions of the tropics. The five warmest years in the 1880–2019 record have all occurred since 2015, while nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. This was also the second highest temperature departure from average for December in the 140-year record. Global ocean surface temperature: The December 2019 globally averaged sea surface temperature was 1.39°F (0.77°C) above the 20th century average. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. Please note that anomalies and ranks reflect the historical record according to these updated v… The graph shows average annual global temperatures since 1880 (source data) compared to the long-term average (1901-2000). According to the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate in 2018, 2018 came in as the fourth warmest year on record in all four of the major global temperature datasets. The total uncertainty is much less than the long-term changes in climate during the last 150 years. However, the concept of a global average temperature is convenient for detecting and tracking changes in Earth's energy budget—how much sunlight Earth absorbs minus how much it radiates to space as heat—over time. This was close to average and the 17th smallest annual snow cover extent in the 1967–2019 record. At the current rate of progression, the increase in Earth’s long-term average temperature will reach 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average by around 2035 and 2 °C (3.6 °F) will be reached around 2065. This value was the second highest departure from average for December in the 1880–2019 record. NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from NCEI. The warmth occurred in the absence of El Niño, which is usually a factor in extreme global warmth. The monthly Arctic sea ice extent was record or near-record low from April through August, as well as October and November 2019. These estimates for the changes in national annual average temperatures are derived from our global temperature fields. In 2019, no places on Earth experienced a record cold annual average. Climate Report, 2018 became the 22nd consecutive warmer-than-average year and was the 14th warmest on record. Global sea surface temperature: The 2019 globally averaged sea surface temperature was also the second highest on record, with a temperature departure from average of 1.39°F (0.77°C) above the 20th century average. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2020, January 15) Assessing the Global Climate in 2019. Since December 1978, microwave sounding units on satellites have produced data which can be used to infer temperatures in the troposphere. 2019 marks the 43rd consecutive year (since 1977) with global land and ocean temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. The months of May through July had record-low sea ice extent during 2019, while January, March and November had near-record low extents. By melting sea ice, warming in the Arctic regions causes more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean, which allows for yet more warming. This was also the eighth highest global land and ocean monthly temperature departure from average for any month on record (1,680 months). No land areas were record cold for the year. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate 2019. To squeeze or stretch the graph in either direction, hold your Shift key down, then click and drag. This largely neutral weather pattern would not be expected to have had a large impact on temperature in 2019. History of global surface temperature since 1880. Though it is interesting to understand the characteristics of individual years, global warming is ultimately about the long-term evolution of Earth’s climate. That extra heat is driving regional and seasonal temperature extremes, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for plants and animals—expanding some and shrinking others. When averaging monthly data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was approximately 3.94 million square miles and the second smallest annual average sea ice extent in the 1979–2019 record.
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